Unica: In the second half of November, the sugar production in central and southern Brazil was 1.084 million tons. According to UNICA, the sugar production in central and southern Brazil reached 1.084 million tons in the second half of November, which was 23% lower than the same period last year. The amount of sugarcane crushed was 20.35 million tons, down by 15.2% compared with the same period of last year. Ethanol production was 1.19 billion liters, down 5.18% year-on-year. 44.89% of sugarcane juice was used for sugar production, compared with 46.54% in the same period of last year.As of the close of 23:00, the main domestic futures contracts fell more and rose less. No.20 rubber fell by nearly 3%, BR rubber fell by nearly 2%, and rubber, caustic soda, vegetable oil, rapeseed meal and hot coil fell by over 1%. In terms of increase, palm oil rose by nearly 1%.Pan Yuanyuan, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of World Economics and Politics, China Academy of Social Sciences: China's determination to expand high-level opening-up has not changed. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to expand high-level opening-up and stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment. We will expand independent opening and unilateral opening in an orderly manner, steadily expand institutional opening, promote the quality improvement and efficiency improvement of the free trade pilot zone and expand the reform mandate, and accelerate the implementation of the core policy of Hainan Free Trade Port. Actively develop service trade, green trade and digital trade. Deepen the reform of foreign investment promotion system and mechanism. We will steadily open up the service industry, expand pilot projects in the fields of telecommunications, medical care and education, and continue to build the brand of "Invest in China". Promote high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road", deepen and improve the overseas comprehensive service system. Pan Yuanyuan, an associate researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that the current situation of attracting foreign investment is rather grim, and the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the policy of expanding independent opening and unilateral opening, showing great determination to open up. In the face of difficulties and challenges, China is still actively exploring win-win cooperation with other countries and becoming a "stabilizer" in the turbulent international environment. Pan Yuanyuan believes that the current structure of attracting foreign investment in China has changed, and the service industry has great potential to attract foreign investment. Therefore, the next step is to further open the service industry. "Relying on China's large domestic market and industrial advantages, China has sufficient stamina to attract foreign investment and foreign investment." (SSE)
The US dollar index DXY rebounded nearly 20 points in the short term and is now reported at 106.65.South Asia Stock Market | Pakistan Stock Index closed up more than 3%, and Sri Lanka Stock Market continued to hit a record high. On Thursday (December 12), the KSE 100 Index of Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan closed up 3.04% to 114,000 points, which was the second consecutive trading day. Karachi's all-share index closed up 2.45% to 72,109.52 points, which also continued to hit a record high. The total share price index of Colombo, Sri Lanka, closed up 1.09% to 14,035.81 points, hitting a record high for several consecutive days. Since the close on November 25th, the cumulative increase has exceeded 9.00%. The Bangladesh DSE Generalized Index closed down 0.37% to 5105.43 points, with a cumulative decline of 1.76% this week (five consecutive natural days).Bitcoin rose nearly $700 in the short term, with an increase of 0.5% in the day, and is now reported at $101,588/piece.
WTI crude oil fell by 1.0% in the day to 69.17 USD/barrel.Lian Ping, Dean and Chief Economist of Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute: It is expected that deficit ratio will be allocated 4%-4.5% next year, and its finance will be more active to meet the current economic needs. (Xinhua Finance)Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
12-14